- The Global Construction 2030 report, from Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics, predicted construction output will grow by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide by 2030, with China, the U.S. and India accounting for 57% of that figure. If the anticipated expansion of an average 3.9% a year until 2030 is correct, construction activity will overtake GDP growth by more than 1%.
- The increase in construction will be driven by economic recovery in developed countries and industrialization in emerging countries, according to the report, and construction in the U.S. will surpass China’s, driven by population growth and continuing economic recovery in the Southern states.
- The report also predicted India will become the world’s third largest construction market by 2021, and Delhi’s population will grow by 10.4 million, making it the world’s second largest city. The construction rate in Mexico is expected to overtake Brazil, and Indonesia will eclipse Japan by 2030, the report noted.
The report said China will have its first housing slowdown this year, accompanied by an overall pullback in the country's economy in general. However, China’s shift to a consumer and service economy, as well as the abolition of its one-child policy, will provide new construction opportunities in markets like healthcare and retail.
"Although globally we see construction growing more rapidly than the overall economy, with developed markets forecast to rebound from their depressed levels, many will not be back to their previous peak levels even by 2030. The current weakness in most emerging countries is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning," Global Construction Perspectives' Mike Betts said in the report.
However, an expected rise in Federal Reserve interest rates, according to Oxford Economics' Director of Industry Services Jeremy Leonard, could very well mean short-term reductions in construction growth in key emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, Turkey and India.
The report offers positive news for the future of the U.S. construction sector as it recovers from the devastating recession and is "still mostly a shell of its former self," U.S. News & World Report noted. If the report is correct in its predictions, the U.S. will play a major role in the coming "global construction renaissance."