Crunching economic and demographic numbers and holding an educated finger to the wind, John Burns real Estate Consulting foresees home ownership going down more this decade before getting near – but not reaching – pre-recession levels.
The Irvine, Calif.-based firm says in an analysis on its website that foreclosures will continue to push down the rate in the near term. The economy will aggravate normal downward cyclical changes, too.
Ownership in 2005 was at 70 percent after 2010 Census data is mixed in, Burns says. In 2015, Wayne Yamano, Burns' research director, predicts 62. 1 percent. By 2025, he sees 67.1 percent.
On the positive side is an aging U.S. population, Yamano notes. Older people are bigger owners until their 70s, he explains.
"Our biggest assumption is that the homeownership rate by age of household will return to the average between 1982 and 2003 (before the bubble years)," the forecast adds.
By 2025, the analysis says, 70 percent of people who were forced out in foreclosures will be back to ownership.