Dive Brief:

• The ratings agency Fitch figures that according to its model for sustainable housing prices, the U.S. as a whole is about 15% over where it should be, but a few markets are throwing off the data.
• Ground zero for talk of bubble prices is San Francisco, where Fitch and others see worrisome movement toward where prices were when it all fell apart after 2006-07.
• Overall, Fitch expects most places to have modest price growth in keeping with economic fundamentals and slower than in the past couple years.

Dive Insight:

In San Francisco, December's median house price was 23.9% higher than at the end of 2012 – standing at $548,500. The top in the bubble was $665,000. It's not like San Francisco is alone in throwing off the national numbers; California generally is skewing things, Fitch's numbers show.