Redfin survey: 27% of homebuyers believe presidential election could hurt housing market
- A May Redfin survey found that 27% of homebuyers, twice the number than in a previous February survey, believe the upcoming presidential election will hurt the housing market.
- The participants who detailed their responses — approximately 200 out of 1,000 total — said the winner of the election will greatly determine the effect on the housing market, with some acknowledging that whoever is elected will face challenges in trying to unify squabbling political factions. Of the survey's buyer and seller respondents, 40% were millennials, and 37% were first-time homebuyers.
- No matter who wins the election, Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson said that it would take time for the new president to implement potential housing policies, and it is unlikely there would be an impact on the housing market immediately after the election.
Richardson added that whoever the next president may be, he or she will "inherit the lowest homeownership rate in 48 years." Earlier this year, the Census Bureau reported that Gen X homeownership was up 0.5% to 58.9% in the first quarter of 2016, while total homeownership in the U.S. was down 20 basis points year over year to 63.5% — well below the 25-year average of 66.2%.
A recent Zillow survey of economists found that they believe a Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump presidency would not bode well for the U.S. housing market, casting doubt on the sector's ability to appreciate at an expected 4% per year. They said candidates who are more to the center, such as Hillary Clinton and John Kasich, would be the best choices for the market.
In a Construction Dive survey in November 2015, readers voted on whom they thought would be best for the construction industry, and Sanders won by a large margin, with Trump coming in second. Sanders fans cited his $1 trillion infrastructure plan, and Trump supporters said his business, construction and real estate experience was a plus.
Earlier this year, Clinton proposed a $25 billion housing initiative as part of a $125 billion "economic revitalization program." Clinton's campaign said that she aims to "lift more families into sustainable homeownership" through down payment help, housing counseling, a retooling of credit criteria, more affordable rental housing and a clarification of lending rules — all without lowering homeownership standards for those not yet ready for the responsibility. Clinton's plan was met with praise and approval from the National Association of Home Builders, and NAHB Chairman Ed Brady said her plan would "help boost homeownership, rental housing and employment opportunities for the American people."
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