Dive Brief:

• The growth in starts of single-family homes from 2012 to this year is expected to be 17%, reaching 629,000.
• Growth is forecast to continue, with 2014 seeing 826,000 and 2014 bringing more than 1 million starts.
• Household formation has gone from 500,000 per year during the recession to 700,000 this year.

Dive Insight:

Naturally, home builders want as good a forecast as they can justify, but they acknowledge there are forces working against the industry. The 700,000 households being formed is half of what was happening at the peak of the housing boom, for example. And as Moody's Analytics economist Mark Zandi told a National Association of Home Builders meeting, all bets are off if Congress cannot agree on raising the debt ceiling and the U.S. takes a never-before-seen step into default.