Grubb & Ellis is predicting a decent year for multifamily, but isn't so optimistic for office.
The forecast contradicts others that have foreseen tenant lease renewals and some rent increases in primary markets.
“Landlord-pleasing increases are unlikely to occur prior to 2013 or 2014, when the market reaches equilibrium,” Grubb reports.
For 2012, however, the forecast sees multifamily vacancy below 5 percent nationally. Office will get below 16 percent, but still not reach equilibrium, except for "supply-constrained and/or technology-driven markets."
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the fourth-quarter apartment-vacancy rate was the lowest since late 2001.
"During the depths of the downturn, landlords had to offer incentives such as flat-screen TVs and months with no rent to attract tenants. But in the fourth quarter of 2011, landlords in 71 of the 82 of the markets that [data firm] Reis follows were able to raise rents," the Journal said.
Like most reports, the Grubb & Ellis forecast cautions that the European economic crisis remains unresolved and could throw off everything.