Dive Brief:
- Nonresidential construction spending slipped 0.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.24 trillion, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
- Private nonresidential outlays dropped 0.5% for the month, though public nonresidential construction ticked up 0.3%, according to the report. Spending decreased in seven of 16 nonresidential categories, including manufacturing and commercial work.
- The dip marks the third straight monthly decline, with tariffs climbing and labor shortages reemerging. “It may be a bleak second half of the year for the construction industry,” said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist.
Dive Insight:
Other signs of weakness could be hiding in plain sight within the latest numbers.
“The recent decline in construction activity is even larger than this data series suggests,” Basu said. “With the exception of the religious category, which represents less than 1% of private nonresidential construction activity, and the power category, which is surging due to data centers and their considerable energy needs, no private subsegment has retained momentum through the first half of 2025.”
July’s dip reflects the impact of higher costs and labor shortages on private construction projects, according to the Associated General Contractors of America.
About 16% of contractors had projects canceled, postponed or scaled back due to tariff-related impacts, according to AGC. Meanwhile, 45% of survey respondents posted delays tied to labor challenges. Policy changes around federal funding, taxes and regulations pushed another 26% of firms to report changes in project demand.
Together, those headwinds pose a major roadblock for construction activity, said AGC CEO Jeffrey Shoaf.
“It is difficult for developers to launch new construction projects when they don’t know how much the project will cost or how long it will take to finish,” said Shoaf. “Providing greater certainty on tariff rates and taking steps to address severe construction labor shortages will go a long way in stimulating new demand for construction.”
Public nonresidential spending continues to cushion the pullback, up 3.1% over the past 12 months. Private nonresidential, on the other hand, dropped 3.7% over the past year, according to the data.
That level of decline signals trouble, said Basu.
“Private nonresidential activity has declined at a particularly concerning pace over the past several months,” said Basu.
Spending on commercial projects ticked down 0.8% in July, the hardest hit of any category, and was closely followed by a 0.7% decline in manufacturing-related construction spending. The slide threatens to deepen further.
“Nearly one in four ABC members reported having a project interrupted or canceled due to tariffs in July, according to ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator survey,” said Basu. “And that predates the particularly large import tax increases put into effect in early August.”
