The construction planning pipeline surged once more to close out the summer, an indicator contractors could see new projects break ground by late 2026.
The Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks nonresidential projects entering the planning stages and leads actual construction spending by a full year, jumped 7.5% in August. Commercial planning increased 8.7%, along with a 5.4% growth in institutional activity, such as education and healthcare projects.
The gain stacks up on July’s 20.8% spike and brings year-to-date planning activity 30% higher than the same period in 2024, according to Dodge Construction Network.
“The DMI continues to point to stronger construction activity in late 2026 or early 2027 with specific sectors,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Following months of uncertainty caused by tariff concerns, owners and developers have started progressing with projects while accepting higher costs.”
Despite the optimism, Martin warned elevated fiscal and economic uncertainty could likely cause swings in future planning activity. Until then, commercial growth continues to sustain momentum, led by strength in data centers, warehouses and hotels, according to the report.
In the institutional sector, planning around education and healthcare projects decelerated from last month, but still remained positive. Meanwhile, a number of detention facilities and court building projects drove lofty gains in the public building sector throughout August, according to the report.
Compared to August 2024, overall planning activity jumped 51%. Commercial planning ticked up 38% year over year, and institutional planning surged 84%, according to the report. Excluding data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would still be up 38% from year-ago levels, largely due to an uptick in warehouse and automotive planning.
A total of 51 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout August, according to Dodge. Major commercial projects included:
- The $500 million Big Sky data center campus and battery storage in Billings, Montana.
- The $360 million Prologis Concorde data center in Sterling, Virginia.
- The $347 million Johnston County Government Complex in Smithfield, North Carolina.
The largest institutional projects to enter planning included:
- The $490 million Weld County Judicial Center in Greeley, Colorado.
- The $375 million dormitory within the Medical Education Training Complex in San Antonio.
- The $360 million renovation to the Framingham Correctional Institution in Framingham, Massachusetts.
