Dive Brief:
- Construction backlog fell to 8.1 months in November, down 0.3 months from October, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors survey conducted Nov. 20 to Dec. 8.
- Backlog declined across every contractor size except firms with more than $100 million in annual revenues, which also were the only group to post year-over-year and month-over-month gains, according to the report.
- Contractor confidence, on the other hand, showed mixed movement. Expectations for sales improved in November, though views on profit margins and staffing levels weakened. Still, all three confidence readings remained above 50, indicating growth expectations over the next six months, according to ABC.
Dive Insight:
The November data underscores a widening gap between large contractors tied to megaproject work and smaller firms exposed to softer segments of the construction market.
Backlog now sits at its lowest level since February 2024, a drop driven primarily by smaller contractors, said Anirban Basu, ABC chief economist. For example, firms with less than $30 million in annual revenues posted their weakest backlog readings in more than four years, according to the release.
That’s largely due to a lack of data center work. Fewer than 6% of ABC members in the smallest revenue tier report holding data center contracts, compared with 37% of contractors with more than $100 million in annual sales, said Basu.
That imbalance has helped insulate larger firms from the broader backlog slide, according to the release.
“Despite the decline in backlog, contractors remain broadly optimistic that their sales and staffing levels will expand over the next six months,” said Basu in the release. “At the same time, just 33.6% of contractors expect their profit margins to expand over the next two quarters, the lowest share in over a year.”
That drop in profit margin expectations stems primarily from rising material costs, said Basu. Several prices for key materials have started to rise again after several quarters of relative stability, he said.
