Dive Brief:
- Three construction economists who were brought together for a webinar hosted by Reed Construction Data (and available online until July 17) had differing outlooks for the home-building portion of the industry.
- Kermit Baker, who is the chief economist for the American Institute of Architects, said housing had been slow this year, but the AIA's panel of eight economists concluded in the past two months that housing starts will go up 23% by the end of the year.
- Ken Simonson, who holds the same job at Associated General Contractors, said he sees different paths for single-family and multifamily housing, with the large buildings probably doing well but single-family perhaps hitting a plateau.
Dive Insight:
Single-family seems troubled partly by data perception. Interest rates for mortgages have gone up from the early days of the recovery, but they are still low by historic standards, as Baker pointed out. Prices have been rising, which might create urgency to act, but the home-building industry still complains that it is too hard for qualified borrowers to get loans.