Dive Brief:
- Forecasts are fickle, but RBC Capital Markets has an analysis out that sees U.S. home building creating 1 million units this year, but not moving much above that for at least two more years.
- The analysts at RBC say their predictions are based on slow population growth and continued financing challenges for would-be buyers, along with a less-than-robust labor market and rising home prices.
- RBC said it expects to see about 1.05 million housing starts next year and perhaps 1.1 million in 2016, but neither are close to the half-century average of 1.46 million through last year.
Dive Insight:
There's no way to tell if RBC is being overly pessimistic. Builders in June reported more optimism about their businesses than had been expected, according to the monthly NAHB survey. But then came the federal monthly report on housing starts that showed a drop last month.